As seven
Republican presidential contenders squared off here for the final debate
before voters begin winnowing the field, Donald Trump presided over his
own, separate rally a mile away in front of a packed house of cheering
supporters.
It would be hard to find a more ideal metaphor for the forces tearing asunder the Republican Party.
For
months, Trump has chosen to operate in his own political universe,
violating the conventional wisdom that governs presidential campaigns,
thumbing his nose at conservative institutions ranging from the Fox News
Channel to the National Review and advocating policies at odds with
party orthodoxy.
And whether he
wins the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Trump’s candidacy promises to continue
to upend the established political order as the presidential race
intensifies ahead of the Nov. 8 election. Most national opinion polls
have him with more than 30 percent of the Republican primary electorate —
and those voters are showing little sign of switching to anyone else.
“I
think he will have made a permanent impact on the process,” Newt
Gingrich, the former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and a
2012 presidential candidate, told Reuters. Trump’s campaign, he said,
“is one of those great disruptions that reshapes everything.”
Tensions
within the Republican Party between grassroots conservatives and the
Washington establishment have been simmering since the Tea Party
movement arose during President Barack Obama’s first term, catapulting
presidential contenders Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul to
office, among others.
NEW FISSURES
But
Trump’s insurgent candidacy has carved new fissures into the party,
splitting conservative talk-radio hosts, religious leaders, and
Washington pundits, with some sounding the alarm while others implore
the party to respond to the anger toward Republican incumbents among
voters who are fueling Trump’s rise.
The
billionaire businessman has mounted his campaign on the notion of the
fading American working-class, arguing they are under threat by both
free trade deals favored by Republicans that encourage companies to send
jobs overseas and by waves of illegal immigrants that work for low
wages.
“People are upset.
People believe that promises made have not been promises kept. There
comes a point when you’ve had it,” said Iowa Republican Party Chairman
Jeff Kaufmann, who has appeared at Trump rallies.
Trump’s
candidacy threatens to scramble the Republican coalition built since
the presidency of Ronald Reagan, one that worked to unite evangelical
Christians and other social conservatives, economic conservatives, and
military hawks behind a standard-bearer.
The
New York real estate tycoon and former reality TV star does not check
many of those boxes. He shocked evangelicals here when he told them he
has never asked God for forgiveness and spends little time on issues
such as abortion and same-sex marriage. He has threatened to slap
tariffs on imported goods to protect American jobs and raise taxes on
hedge-fund managers. He has decried the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and
has sounded reluctant to deeply involve U.S. forces in the conflict in
Syria.
“He is attracting people
of all kinds of backgrounds who have never thought of themselves as
Republicans,” Gingrich said. “I think it’s very hard for traditional
political observers to understand (what’s happening).”
Early
during Thursday’s debate in Des Moines, it seemed that the seven
Republicans on the stage worked collectively to try and wean voters in
Iowa and elsewhere off of Trump, with some dismissing him as an
entertainer and others blasting his policy stances. His absence loomed
over the entire event.
And Trump
demonstrated the sway he holds over the race when it was revealed that
Fox News executives had made an 11th-hour pitch to woo him back onto the
debate stage, handing him a rhetorical victory of sorts even as his
rivals seemed to relish his absence.
He
also was joined at his event in Des Moines by two other Republican
presidential candidates, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum — perhaps an
acknowledgement that Trump’s campaign may be a juggernaut now that may
not be able to be stopped and that it might be time to climb aboard.
A NEW FORMULA?
Cruz alluded at the debate to the need to bring order to what has been a chaotic campaign.
“Anyone who is able
to win in the Republican Party has to be able to bring together the
disparate elements of the Reagan coalition,” he said. “You've got to be
able to bring together conservatives and evangelicals and libertarians,
and stitch together a winning majority.”
But
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who is not aligned with any
candidate, said Cruz may be too beholden to the conventional ways to win
the nomination.
“What resonates
(for voters) is not just Trump’s bravado, it’s that the everyday man
thinks he’s fighting for him,” O’Connell said. “Cruz assumes being a
conservative means an ideological checklist. For a lot of others in the
party, or for some who have left the party, it’s more of a feeling.”
Even
as the seven candidates argued among themselves about who is best
positioned to challenge Trump for the nomination, analytics provided by
Google during the debate showed Trump eclipsed all of them in terms of
number of searches.
And if Trump
loses next Monday in Iowa — he’s locked in a close race with Cruz in the
state — polls show him with large leads in New Hampshire and South
Carolina, the next states to hold nominating contests.
"This
is not something that fits into some nice little tight box. That is the
beauty of Trump," O'Connell said. "I think he could be the nominee. And
I think he could actually win the presidency."
(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
SAP is the sponsor of this coverage which is independently produced by the staff of Reuters News Agency.
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